It is not a coincidence that the disputing Yemeni politicians over power in Sana'a have chosen two presidents from south Yemen. The Vice President (VP) Abdu Rabo Mansur Hadi, to whom Saleh has given up power to him in accordance with the GCC initiative, which is signed on last November 23 and who is going to be elected as president next February had been one of the military leaders in the south.
The transitional Prime Minister over whom the Yemeni politicians have agreed, Mohammed Salem Basandwah, is also from the south. He was one of the labor activists in the south during the British rule. It is clear that the message that the Yemeni politicians are trying to direct a message to the Yemenis in the south that they are keen for the continuation of unity between the two parts of Yemen.
Several southern political activists have met in Cairo for reaching an agreement on the future of the southern part of Yemen , amid rising calls for separation and the establishment of an independent state.
However they have not come to a consensus on their desires. There is a general agreement among the southerners that the south should have more independence in determining their affairs, but they were split into two groups, one calling for a federal system under a unified Yemen and the other demanding separation.
The second tendency is led by Ali Salem al-Bied, leader of the Socialist party in exile, and he was the one who led Southern Yemen into unification with Sana'a (he didn't attend the Cairo conference.)
Ali Abdullah Saleh insists on staying in Yemen for the last moment and his opponents seek to get rid of him in the nearest possible opportunity.
Given the complications of the situation in Yemen he managed to obtain what the presidents in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya had failed to win, in terms of the general amnesty from all that he and his aides had committed, and which is considered to be crimes pursuant to the international human rights laws, and not only within the acts of national sovereignty. His continuation to stay in Sana'a complicates matters further, and may lead to the deactivation of the amnesty, which he is looking forward to, with his aides.
International mediators are seeking to draft an amnesty that avoids future trials and states that there should be a reconciliation and justice law that gives the Yemeni judiciary the right to issue judgments with stay of execution against Saleh's aides who are involved in individual or collective murder crimes for the revolutionary youth or any other criminal offenses .
Saleh has however refused this formula and insisted on the formula that has recently been issued by the Cabinet. The UN Human Rights commissioner , Nafi Paley has warned the Yemenis that " the Yemeni amnesty will undermine Yemen's international commitments towards human rights."
In the meantime " al-Daoa wa al-Islah movement," the Reform and Call movement has exploited the popular resentment and adopted a call for overthrowing school headmasters and Directors of the public facilities. It organized protests for the employees in different institutions under the slogan of " expulsion of the corrupts," which extended to all sectors of health, education, local governance, security and included even the political security and the central security personnel.
This enables the movement to be present in the most sensitive positions during the changes that it is going to impose on the street.
It is known that the movement has links with the Muslim brotherhood, but some see that it is more radical than the radical Islamic political movement, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.
It has a broad base and collaborators under the leadership of Sheikh Abdul-Majeed al-Zindani, including General Mohsen Al-Ahmar and Tawkol Karman the last year noble laureate. The huge finance for the movement, enables it to dominate the next Parliament when the elections are conducted, like the Islamic movements in the rest of the Arab countries such as Egypt and Tunisia.
Yemeni Political indicators, so far, show that there would be an overwhelming parliamentary success for political Islamic groups in collaboration with tribal and military coalition. It will marginalize the liberal groups based in Taiz. The agreement over a federal system will determine the regions' role through national dialogue between all these structures, including the northern and southern ones that demand independence. These will be very clear within this year, and will reveal what the Yemenis will agree upon.